Flexible Reality: A Proud Member of the Reality-Based Community
A Selective Tasting of Articles about Social, Economic, Scientific, Artistic, and Political Thought That Has Successfully Passed Thru Stage I of a Stupidity Filter. ****************
Friday, December 31, 2004
THE GREAT DIVIDE | TALKING BACK TO POWER
China's 'Haves' Stir the 'Have Nots' to Violence
NY Times
By JOSEPH KAHN
WANZHOU, China, Dec. 24 - The encounter, at first, seemed purely pedestrian. A man carrying a bag passed a husband and wife on a sidewalk. The man's bag brushed the woman's pants leg, leaving a trace of mud. Words were exchanged. A scuffle ensued.
Easily forgettable, except that one of the men, Yu Jikui, was a lowly porter. The other, Hu Quanzong, boasted that he was a ranking government official. Mr. Hu beat Mr. Yu using the porter's own carrying stick, then threatened to have him killed.
For Wanzhou, a Yangtze River port city, the script was incendiary. Onlookers spread word that a senior official had abused a helpless porter. By nightfall, tens of thousands of people had swarmed Wanzhou's central square, where they tipped over government vehicles, pummeled policemen and set fire to city hall.
Minor street quarrel provokes mass riot. The Communist Party, obsessed with enforcing social stability, has few worse fears. Yet the Wanzhou uprising, which occurred on Oct. 18, is one of nearly a dozen such incidents in the past three months, many touched off by government corruption, police abuse and the inequality of the riches accruing to the powerful and well connected.
"People can see how corrupt the government is while they barely have enough to eat," said Mr. Yu, reflecting on the uprising that made him an instant proletarian hero - and later forced him into seclusion. "Our society has a short fuse, just waiting for a spark."
Though it is experiencing one of the most spectacular economic expansions in history, China is having more trouble maintaining social order than at any time since the Tiananmen Square democracy movement in 1989.
Police statistics show the number of public protests reached nearly 60,000 in 2003, an increase of nearly 15 percent from 2002 and eight times the number a decade ago. Martial law and paramilitary troops are commonly needed to restore order when the police lose control.
China does not have a Polish-style Solidarity labor movement. Protests may be so numerous in part because they are small, local expressions of discontent over layoffs, land seizures, use of natural resources, ethnic tensions, misspent state funds, forced immigration, unpaid wages or police killings. Yet several mass protests, like the one in Wanzhou, show how people with different causes can seize an opportunity to press their grievances together.
The police recently arrested several advocates of peasant rights suspected of helping to coordinate protest activities nationally. Those are worrying signs for the one-party state, reflexively wary of even the hint of organized opposition.
Wang Jian, a researcher at the Communist Party's training academy in Changchun, in northeast China, said the number and scale of protests had been rising because of "frictions and even violent conflicts between different interest groups" in China's quasi market economy.
"These mass incidents have seriously harmed the country's social order and weakened government authority, with destructive consequences domestically and abroad," Mr. Wang wrote in a recent study.
China's top leaders said after their annual planning session in September that the "life and death of the party" rests on "improving governance," which they define as making party officials less corrupt and more responsive to public concerns.
But the only accessible outlet for farmers and workers to complain is the network of petition and appeals offices, a legacy of imperial rule. A new survey by Yu Jianrong, a leading sociologist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, found that petitions to the central government had increased 46 percent in 2003 from the year before, but that only two-hundredths of 1 percent of those who used the system said it worked.
Last month, as many as 100,000 farmers in Sichuan Province, frustrated by months of fruitless appeals against a dam project that claimed their land, took matters into their own hands. They seized Hanyuan County government offices and barred work on the dam site for days. It took 10,000 paramilitary troops to quell the unrest.
Also in November, in Wanrong County, Shanxi Province, in central China, two policemen were killed when enraged construction workers attacked a police station after a traffic dispute. Days later, in Guangdong Province, in the far south, riots erupted and a toll booth was burned down after a woman claimed she had been overcharged to use a bridge. In mid-December, a village filled with migrant workers in Guangdong erupted into a frenzy of violence after the police caught a 15-year-old migrant stealing a bicycle and beat him to death. Up to 50,000 migrants rioted there, Hong Kong newspapers reported.
Wanzhou officials initially treated their riot in October as a fluke. They ordered Mr. Hu to declare on television that he is a fruit vendor, not a public official, and that his confrontation with Mr. Yu was a mistake. The police arrested a dozen people and declared social order restored.
But the uprising alarmed Beijing, which told local officials they would be sacked if they failed to prevent recurrences, according to Chinese journalists briefed on the matter. Luo Gan, the member of the Politburo Standing Committee who is in charge of law and order, issued national guidelines warning that "sudden mass incidents" were increasing and calling for tighter police measures.
More than a dozen people interviewed in Wanzhou, part of Chongqing Municipality, described the city as tense. All said that they still believed that Mr. Hu was indeed an official and that the government concocted a cover story to calm things down. They say the anger excited by the riot awaits only a new affront.
The Chance Encounter
Like many farmers in the steeply graded hills along the Yangtze, Mr. Yu, 57, supplements his income hauling loads up and down city roads - grain, fertilizer, air conditioners, anything that he can balance on a bamboo pole and hoist on his slender shoulder. Sweaty and dirty, porters put their low-paying profession on parade. They are often referred to simply as bian dan, or pole men.
Mr. Yu's lot is better than some others. He has another sideline collecting hair cuttings off the floors of beauty salons and barber shops, packing them in big burlap bags and selling them to wig-makers down south.
On Oct. 18, he spent several hours collecting hair from upscale salons along Baiyan Road, a busy shopping street that runs near the government square downtown. His load was light - two bags of loose locks - and he scurried down the sidewalk to lunch.
"Hey, pole man, you got dirt all over my pants!" he heard a woman shout. When he turned to face her, the man by her side, Mr. Hu, was glaring at him.
"What are you looking at, bumpkin?" Mr. Yu recalls Mr. Hu saying.
Mr. Yu is mild mannered, with a slightly raffish grin stained yellow from chain smoking. Mr. Hu, wearing a coat and tie and leather shoes, looked like he might be important. Mr. Yu said he should have let the moment pass. He did not.
"I work like this so that my daughter and son can dress better than I do, so don't look down on me," he recalled saying. Then he added, "I sell my strength just as a prostitute sells her body."
Mr. Yu said he was drawing a general comparison. Mr. Hu and his young wife, Zeng Qingrong, apparently thought he had insinuated something else. She jerked his shirt collar and slapped his ear. Mr. Hu picked up Mr. Yu's fallen pole and struck him in the legs and back repeatedly.
Perhaps for the benefit of the crowd, Mr. Hu shouted that it was Mr. Yu, sprawled on the pavement, who was in big trouble.
"I'm a public official," Mr. Hu said, according to Mr. Yu and other eyewitnesses. "If this guy causes me more problems, I'll pay 20,000 kuai" - about $2,500 - "and have him knocked off."
Those words never appeared in the state-controlled media. But is difficult to find anyone in Wanzhou today who has not heard some version of Mr. Hu's bluster: The putative official - he has been identified in the rumor mill as the deputy chief of the local land bureau - had boasted that he could have a porter killed for $2,500. It was a call to arms.
Mr. Hu's threat, spread by mobile phones, text messages and the swelling crowd, encapsulated a thousand bitter grievances.
"I heard him say those exact words," said Wen Jiabao, another porter who says he witnessed the confrontation. "It proves that it's better to be rich than poor, but that being an official is even better than being rich."
Xiang Lin, a 18-year-old auto mechanic, had seen China's rising wealth when he worked near Shanghai. But when he returned home to Wanzhou, he felt frustrated that his plan to open a repair shop foundered. He was drawn downtown by the excitement.
"Don't officials realize that we would not have any economic development in Wanzhou without the porters?" Mr. Xiang asked.
Cai Shizhong, a taxi driver, was angered when the authorities created a company to control taxi licenses, which he says cost him thousands of dollars but brought no benefits. The police also fine taxi drivers left and right, he said.
"If you drive a private car, they leave you alone because you might be important," Mr. Cai said. "If you drive a taxi, they find any excuse to take your money."
Peng Daosheng's home was flooded by the rising reservoir of the Three Gorges Dam. He was supposed to receive $4,000 in compensation as well as a new home. But his new apartment is smaller and less well located, and the cash never arrived.
"The officials take all the money for themselves," said Mr. Peng, who spent eight hours protesting that night. "I guess that's why that guy had $2,500 to kill someone."
It took the police more than four hours to remove Mr. Hu and Mr. Yu from the scene. The crowd surrounded police cars and refused to budge, afraid the police would cover up the beating, and even punish Mr. Yu.
"People knew the matter would never be resolved fairly behind closed doors," Mr. Yu said.
Even after the police formed a cordon around two cars - one for Mr. Hu and his wife, another for Mr. Yu - the crowd smashed the windows of the car carrying the couple. It was nearly 5 p.m. before the vehicles crawled through the assembled masses.
A Loss of Control
The police may have hoped that removing the main actors from the scene would defuse the tension. Instead, the crowd rampaged. At 6 p.m., a police van was surrounded and the policeman inside was beaten with bricks. Seven or eight people tipped the car over, stuffed toilet paper into the gas tank and set it ablaze, according to witnesses and a police report.
When a fire truck arrived, the fire fighters were forced out and their truck commandeered. A driver smashed it into brick wall, then backed up and repeated the move to render the truck immobile.
"They lost control at once," recalled Mr. Cai, the taxi driver, who wandered through the crowd that day. "Suddenly the police were nobody and the people were in charge."
The local government never published an estimate of how many people took part in the protest. But unofficial estimates by Chinese journalists on the scene ranged from 30,000 to 70,000, enough to stop all traffic downtown and fill the government square.
By 8 p.m., the rally focused on the 20-story headquarters of the Wanzhou District Government, with its blue-tinted windows and imposing terrace facing the square. The crowd chanted, "Hand over the assassin!" Riot-police officers in full protective gear - but carrying no guns - held the terrace. Officials with loudspeakers urged the crowd to disperse, promising that the incident would be handed according to law.
But the mob now followed its own law. An assembly line formed from a nearby construction site. Concrete building slabs were ferried along the line, then shattered with sledgehammers to make projectiles. Front-line rioters hurled the rocks at the police - tentatively at first, then in volleys.
Under the barrage, the police retreated. Protesters charged the terrace, shattered the windows and doors of government headquarters and surged inside.
Official documents were scattered. Protesters dumped computers and office furniture off the terrace. Soon, a raging fire illuminated the square with its flickering orange glow.
Li Jian, 22, took part in the plunder. A young peasant, he had found a city job as a short-order cook. But he longed to study computers, said his father, Li Wanfa. The family bought an old computer keyboard so the young man could learn typing.
"He wanted to go to high school but the school said his cultural level was not high enough," Mr. Li said. "They said a country boy like him should be a cook."
The police arrested young Mr. Li scurrying through the melee with a Legend-brand computer that belonged to the government, according to an arrest notice.
Yet even at the height of the incident, rioters set limits. They did not attack any of the restaurants or department stores along the government square, focusing their wrath on symbols of official power.
By midnight, the crowd dwindled on its own. When paramilitary troops finally arrived on the scene after 3 a.m., there were only a few thousand hard-core protesters left.
"Most people went home," said Mr. Peng, the man whose home had been flooded by the dam. "But the armed police were fierce. They beat you even if you kneeled down before them."
The Tensions Persist
The local government praised its own handling of the riot. An assessment published three days afterward in The Three Gorges City News, the daily paper of the Wanzhou Communist Party, also declared the uprising had no lasting ramifications.
"The district government displayed its strong governing ability at a crucial moment," the report said. "This incident was caused by a handful of agitators with ulterior motives who whipped up a street-side dispute into a mass riot."
The uprising did dissipate as quickly as it emerged. Baiyan Road now bustles with afternoon shoppers. After work, dancers bundled against the damp chill use government square as an outdoor ballroom, a synthesized two-step beat filling the night air.
Yet the underlying tensions did not disappear.
When the Wan Min Cotton Textile Factory declared bankruptcy in mid-December, scores of policemen occupied the factory grounds to prevent a riot. The next day, a handful of workers from the factor went to city hall to protest. Several hundred uniformed police surrounded them.
Mr. Xiang, the auto mechanic, was arrested for throwing stones and taken into custody. One day, returning from the cold showers inmates were required to take in the unheated jail, guards told him to kneel. One elbowed him in the back and several others kicked him in the gut.
As he lay prostrate, a prison supervisor said: "Nothing happened to you here, did it? You're a smart kid."
He could not eat for two days.
"We were all brothers inside," he said of his fellow detainees. "The officials despise the ordinary people and are not afraid to bully them."
Then there's Mr. Yu. He missed the riot that occurred in his name, but has been under pressure ever since. The government kept him isolated in a hospital for nearly two weeks, even though bruises on his legs and the stitches he needed above his eye had healed.
His daughter and son were told to take a vacation, paid by the government, to avoid contact with the news media. "They told us not to talk or it would hurt the city," Mr. Yu said in his first interview.
Yet he said what really shook him was the reaction to the statement he made to Wanzhou television on Oct. 20, two days after the riot. The government told him to appear - he was still under guard - and had prepared questions in advance.
"They told me to emphasize the importance of law and order," he said. "I was told just to answer the questions and not to say anything else."
What he said on the evening news sounded innocuous enough. "Let this be handled by law," Mr. Yu told viewers. "Everyone should stay at home."
So he was unprepared for the backlash.
Relatives of those arrested criticized him for propagandizing for the government, saying their kin felt betrayed. Neighbors warned him not to plant rice this year because his enemies would just rip it out. His wife says she wants to move because she has heard too many threats.
Mr. Yu is understandably confused.
"First an official tries to break my legs because I am a dirty porter," he said. "Now the common people want to break my legs because I spoke for the government."
Thursday, December 30, 2004
The Squeeky Wheel and the FCC
Activists Dominate Content ComplaintsDecember 06, 2004
By Todd Shields
In an appearance before Congress in February, when the controversy over Janet Jackson’s Super Bowl moment was at its height, Federal Communications Commission chairman Michael Powell laid some startling statistics on U.S. senators.
The number of indecency complaints had soared dramatically to more than 240,000 in the previous year, Powell said. The figure was up from roughly 14,000 in 2002, and from fewer than 350 in each of the two previous years. There was, Powell said, “a dramatic rise in public concern and outrage about what is being broadcast into their homes.”
What Powell did not reveal—apparently because he was unaware—was the source of the complaints. According to a new FCC estimate obtained by Mediaweek, nearly all indecency complaints in 2003—99.8 percent—were filed by the Parents Television Council, an activist group.
This year, the trend has continued, and perhaps intensified.
Through early October, 99.9 percent of indecency complaints—aside from those concerning the Janet Jackson “wardrobe malfunction” during the Super Bowl halftime show broadcast on CBS— were brought by the PTC, according to the FCC analysis dated Oct. 1. (The agency last week estimated it had received 1,068,767 complaints about broadcast indecency so far this year; the Super Bowl broadcast accounted for over 540,000, according to commissioners’ statements.)
The prominent role played by the PTC has raised concerns among critics of the FCC’s crackdown on indecency. “It means that really a tiny minority with a very focused political agenda is trying to censor American television and radio,” said Jonathan Rintels, president and executive director of the Center for Creative Voices in Media, an artists’ advocacy group.
PTC officials disagree.
“I wish we had that much power,” said Lara Mahaney, spokeswoman for the Los Angeles-based group. Mahaney said the issue should not be the source of complaints, but whether programming violates federal law prohibiting the broadcast of indecent matter when children are likely to be watching. “Why does it matter how the complaints come?” Mahaney said. “If the networks haven’t done anything illegal, if they haven’t done anything indecent, why do they care what we say?”
Powell, who said during the National Association of Broadcasters convention in Las Vegas in April that he was unsure how many complaints come from organized groups, addressed the question in an op-ed piece in The New York Times last Friday.
“Advocacy groups do generate many complaints, as our critics note, but that’s not unusual in today’s Internet world…that fact does not minimize the merits of the groups’ concerns,” Powell wrote.
Powell’s fellow Republican commissioner, Kathleen Abernathy, last week said that the agency does not let the number or the sources of complaints determine its indecency findings. “As long as you’re following precedents and the law, it shouldn’t matter,” Abernathy told Mediaweek.
At issue is a process that once relied upon aggrieved listeners and viewers contacting the FCC, but that increasingly is driven by organized groups with a focus on programming content. The FCC does not monitor programming for fear of assuming a role as national censor; it relies on complaints to initiate its indecency proceedings.
So far this year, the system has resulted in millions of dollars in settlements and proposed fines against broadcasters.
In such a system, even the number of complaints becomes an object of contention. For example, the agency on Oct. 12, in proposing fines of nearly $1.2 million against Fox Broadcasting and its affiliates, said it received 159 complaints against Married by America, which featured strippers partly obscured by pixilation.
But when asked, the FCC’s Enforcement Bureau said it could find only 90 complaints from 23 individuals. (The smaller total was first reported by Internet-based TV writer Jeff Jarvis; Mediaweek independently obtained the Enforcement Bureau’s calculation.)
And Fox, in a filing last Friday, told the FCC that it should rescind the proposed fines, in part because the low number of complaints fell far short of indicating that community standards had been violated.
“All but four of the complaints were identical…and only one complainant professed even to have watched the program,” Fox said. It said the network and its stations had received 34 comments, “a miniscule total for a show that had a national audience of 5.1 million households.”
Even as some question whether the FCC should let the views of 23 people lead to fines, others take the agency to task for routinely failing to account for many of the complaints it receives. “Over 4,000 people filed a complaint against Married by America. Where do the complaints go?” asked the PTC’s Mahaney.
The PTC has worked hard to achieve its influence over broadcast content. Founded in 1995 by longtime conservative activist L. Brent Bozell III, it set out to make an impact in 2003, including what it called “a massive, coordinated and determined campaign” for more action by the FCC against broadcast indecency. “We delivered on that promise,” Bozell said in the group’s annual report.
The document listed tools developed by the PTC, including continual monitoring and archiving of broadcast network programs and “cutting-edge technology to make it easier for members to contact program sponsors, the FCC, or the networks directly with a simple click of the button.”
The result, the group said, was “a more than 2,400 percent increase in online activism.”
Passport Is Dead ! RIP...
Microsoft ends Passport push
By Joseph Menn
Published: December 31 2004 02:00 | Last updated: December 31 2004 02:00
Microsoft is abandoning one of its most contentious attempts to dominate the internet after rival technology companies banded together in opposition and consumers failed to embrace it.
The world's biggest software company said it would stop trying to persuade websites to use its Passport service, which stores consumers' credit card and other information as they surf from place to place.
The acknowledgment came after Ebay posted a notice on its site on Wednesday, saying it would stop using Passport in January and rely on its own service.
Another early backer, Monster Worldwide's job-hunting site, Monster.com, dropped Passport in October.
Because it would keep track of credit card numbers and passwords as people moved from website to website, Microsoft had predicted that Passport would smooth the way for widespread use of web services based on a person's identity instead of those linked to information stored on a specific PC.
But Passport attracted the ire of privacy advocates, trade regulators on two continents and technology security experts, who in 2003 found a hole that could have led to massive identity theft.
As for major merchants, they were concerned about letting Microsoft stand between them and their customers. They feared that the company which controlled more than 90 per cent of the world's desktop computers might one day charge a toll on e-commerce transactions.
In the end, Passport may have been doomed by competition. Soon after Microsoft unveiled the service, a consortium of companies, including Sony, Hewlett-Packard and Sun Microsystems, formed the Liberty Alliance. It issued guidelines for online customer authentication services, which encouraged the development of Passport rivals.
Adam Sohn, marketing director for Microsoft MSN internet services, said the pull-back was driven by Microsoft's decision to focus on building tools that other companies could use to create their own internet programs, instead of offering the programs itself."
Wednesday, December 29, 2004
AARP & SS Privatization
In Ads, AARP Criticizes Plan on Privatizing
By ROBERT PEAR
Published: December 30, 2004
WASHINGTON, Dec. 29 - AARP, the influential lobby for older Americans, signaled Wednesday for the first time how fervently it would fight President Bush's proposal for private Social Security accounts, saying it would begin a $5 million two-week advertising campaign timed to coincide with the start of the new Congress.
The organization, which played a huge role in the passage of Medicare drug legislation last year, said it was prepared to spend much more in the next two years to block the creation of private accounts financed with payroll tax revenues.
"This is our signature issue," said Christine M. Donohoo, chief communications officer for AARP, which represents 36 million Americans 50 and older. "We will do what it takes."
The full-page advertisements, to appear next week in more than 50 newspapers around the country, say the accounts would cause "Social Insecurity."
"There are places in your retirement planning for risk," the advertisements say, "but Social Security isn't one of them."
One advertisement shows a couple in their 40's looking at the reader. "If we feel like gambling, we'll play the slots," the message says.
Another advertisement shows traders in the pit of a commodities exchange. "Winners and losers are stock market terms," it says. "Do you really want them to become retirement terms?"
AARP's confrontational stance on Social Security contrasts with its strategy on Medicare legislation in 2002 and 2003.
Senior officials of the group continually talked to the White House and to Republicans in Congress about proposals to add drug coverage to Medicare. But to date, AARP leaders said, they have had few conversations with the White House about Mr. Bush's plans for Social Security.
Lawmakers of both parties said the Medicare bill might not have passed without a last-minute endorsement by AARP, which describes itself as a nonpartisan organization. The endorsement outraged some members of the group and some Democrats in Congress. But now, it appears, AARP will be working with Democrats against Republican proposals for private accounts.
AARP strongly supports new incentives for people to save for retirement, but says such savings should supplement the existing system.
Marie F. Smith, the group's president, and William D. Novelli, its chief executive, set forth the organization's position this month in letters to members and to lawmakers.
Private accounts would worsen the problems of Social Security, they said, adding: "Taking some of the money that workers pay into the system and diverting it into newly created private accounts would weaken Social Security and put benefits for future generations at risk. AARP is opposed to private accounts that take money out of Social Security."
Under President Bush's proposal, workers could divert some payroll taxes to personal accounts that could be invested in stocks and bonds.
At a news conference last week, Mr. Bush defended his proposal as a way to encourage "an ownership society," increase savings and provide "capital for entrepreneurial growth." By investing in private accounts, he said, workers could earn a higher rate of return than they get from the Social Security trust fund, and they could pass on the accumulated assets to their heirs.
Ms. Donohoo said AARP's advertisements were intended to "mobilize seniors" and to educate younger people about the program, which pays monthly benefits to more than 47 million Americans.
The advertisements will generally run three times in each newspaper from Jan. 4, when Congress convenes, to Jan. 20, when Mr. Bush is to be inaugurated for a second term.
Some advocates of private accounts, like the libertarian Cato Institute, are also gearing up. But Jamie W. Dettmer, a Cato spokesman, said: "We do not have plans to do advertising or lobbying. Our experts will write op-ed articles, appear on television and radio and testify before Congress if they're invited."
At a White House economic conference this month, Mr. Bush previewed his message to Congress on Social Security. "The crisis is now," he said. "You may not feel it, your constituents may not be overwhelming you with letters demanding a fix now, but the crisis is now."
On the other hand, Ms. Donohoo of AARP said that "rather modest changes" could ensure the solvency of the program for several generations. "It's not a crisis," she said.
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Vegas Casino buys "religious icon" on eBay.And further into Lala-Land, here's the video !!
Campaigning Abbas Says No Peace with Israel Barrier
Wed Dec 29, 2004 11:21 AM ET
By Wafa Amr
QALQILYA, West Bank (Reuters) - Taking his campaign to succeed Yasser Arafat to the foot of Israel's West Bank barrier, interim Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas said on Wednesday there would be no peace until Israel tore it down.
Abbas, demonstrating a new knack for popular politicking after decades as a reticent deputy to Arafat, drew cheers from thousands at stops in two cities hemmed in by Israel's barrier in his pursuit of election on Jan. 9 as Palestinian president.
"No (Middle East) peace can transpire with (Jewish) settlements and the wall," Abbas said with his back to the towering concrete divide that virtually encircles the town of Qalqilya near the West Bank's boundary with Israel.
"We tell our neighbors: 'No matter how many settlements, walls or obstacles you build, it will not bring you security or peace," said the veteran moderate who wants talks on Palestinian statehood on Israeli-occupied land after years of fighting.
Israel says the barrier, a mix of electronic fences and walls that encroaches on West Bank territory by differing amounts over the 200 km built so far, is meant to keep suicide bombers out of its cities.
Palestinians call the barrier -- whose planned course would encompass Israeli settlements in the West Bank -- a disguised move to annex or fragment territory Palestinians seek for a viable state.
WORLD COURT CONDEMNDATION
The World Court has called the barrier illegal for being built on captured land.
Thousands of farmers have been separated from fields and the barrier has hampered trade between villages and market towns like Qalqilya, where 40,000 people are ringed by concrete except for one small outlet.
Abbas has raised hopes for peace by quickly becoming the overwhelming favorite to replace Arafat in the election, riding a swing in Palestinian sentiment in favor of negotiations since the iconic former guerrilla leader died at 75 last month.
The hearty welcome given Abbas at his first campaign rally in Jericho on Tuesday carried over on Wednesday to Qalqilya and Tulkarm. Crowds repeatedly interrupted his speeches with cheers and people of all ages ran excitedly after his convoy.
Abbas, 69, smiled and raised his arms to those who hailed and sometimes swarmed him to shake his hand, reveling in a crowd like a natural politician contrasting with his longtime image as a sober functionary in Arafat's inner circle.
Heavy security was draped around Abbas because of feared threats from militants opposed to peacemaking.
However, local members of the al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, an armed group in the mainstream Fatah faction that nominated Abbas for president, greeted Abbas and said they would vote for him.
Abu Salem, commander of the Brigades in Tulkarm, said gunmen would be receptive to Abbas's call for an end to armed violence, which has abated in most areas since Arafat died in November.
Abbas repeated his campaign theme that he would follow in Arafat's footsteps by vowing to seek a state in all of the West Bank and Gaza Strip with East Jerusalem as its capital and the "right of return" of refugees to what is now Israel.
Israel and U.S. mediators boycotted Arafat as an alleged mastermind of bloodshed but have sized up Abbas as someone they could deal with because he has branded violence a mistake.
Internet Phone Services Regulation Update
Court Bars Regulation of Web Phone ServiceNY Times
By MATT RICHTEL
Published: December 29, 2004
A federal appeals court upheld a lower court ruling yesterday that prohibits the state of Minnesota from regulating Internet-based phone calling as if it were a traditional telecommunications service.
The ruling by the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit in St. Louis, in an appeal brought by the Minnesota Public Utilities Commission, is a victory for companies like Vonage that provide phone calls over the Internet. Those companies have argued that they are different from traditional telecommunications providers, in part because they supply the computer software used to make and receive calls but do not own and operate the physical network that carries the calls.
In a lower court decision in this same case, the Federal District Court of Minnesota ruled in October 2003 that Vonage should be properly defined not as a telecommunications service but as an information service, a designation that would free it from some state regulations.
Last month the Federal Communications Commission issued its own rules on the subject, stating that Internet phone services should not be governed by the same state regulations as traditional telephone companies. The F.C.C. decision left open the possibility that the states could still tax Internet phone businesses.
The Minnesota Public Utilities Commission then asked the appeals court to consider whether the F.C.C. ruling pre-empted the lower court's decision. But the appeals court wrote in its two-page order issued yesterday that the F.C.C. rules actually supported the district court's injunction against the commission.
The case is part of a larger debate about how telecommunications should be regulated in the digital age. As more communication takes place on the Internet, advocates of deregulating telecommunications are arguing that the new era demands a new set of rules.
But those in favor of continued regulation, including the state of New York and many other states, have argued that Internet calls are effectively the same as traditional telephone calls and deserve the same level of government oversight."
International Financials Provide Warnings about America's Future
China Expands. Europe Rises. And the United States . . .
By FRED KAPLAN
IT'S a risky business to predict the decline of the American empire. Ask Paul Kennedy, the Yale historian, who issued such a forecast in his 1987 book, "The Rise and Fall of Great Powers," only to witness an almost immediate American resurgence.
Yet the signposts, at the end of this year, are ominous. As an economic power, the United States no longer sets the rules, much less rule the game. As a military power, it vastly outguns the rest of the world, but has a harder time translating armed might into influence.
On March 1, the European Union announced that it was raising import tariffs on a long list of American products, and would go on raising them each month until Congress repealed a subsidy for American exporters that had been ruled illegal by the World Trade Organization. Congressmen railed against this intrusion but finally gave in. Americans realized that, in the global economy they largely created and for 60 years dominated, they could no longer do whatever they wanted.
Last month, China's president, Hu Jintao, embarked on a 12-day tour of Latin America, and wound up making commitments to invest $30 billion in the region. China is now Brazil's second largest trading partner and Chile's largest export market. In trade, technology, investment, education and culture, China has been displacing the United States all across Asia, and is now starting to do the same in America's backyard.
There is nothing necessarily alarming about an expansive China or an emergent Europe, except perhaps that they coincide with a growing American dependence on both.
The United States government spent $650 billion more this year than it raised in revenue, and financed the deficit largely by borrowing from foreign central banks, mainly those of Japan and China. They have been willing creditors because American consumers send much of the money right back by purchasing foreign-made products. It's a neat balancing act, to a point. But the American accumulated debt to foreign investors has now swelled to $3.3 trillion - 28 percent of gross domestic product, nearly double the share of four years ago.
In the 1990's, the United States admonished Mexico and Argentina to get their economic houses in order. This month, the Chinese premier gave Washington a strikingly similar lecture.
These imbalances are not inherently disastrous. The Chinese get something out of the deal, a ready consumer market for their overheated production lines. If they stop lending to the United States, it would cause a deep recession here, but then Americans could not buy as many of their goods, and the recession would ricochet right back to Asia.
It's a variation on the old joke: If you owe the bank $1 billion, the bank owns you; if you owe the bank $1 trillion, you own the bank.
But what if another trillion-dollar customer walked into the bank? The bankers might be more willing to foreclose on the debtor, knowing that they could pick up business from the new tycoon.
The European Union, in many respects, is looking more and more like this new tycoon. Its currency, the euro, has risen in value by 35 percent against the dollar in the last three years.
Again, that is not necessarily bad. In theory, a falling dollar makes American exports cheaper, attracting demand that then boosts the dollar; a rising euro crimps European exports, which then lowers the euro; equilibrium is restored. In reality, this process unfolds slowly and shakily: in October, for instance, American exports rose, but American imports soared, too.
A more serious consequence of the dollar's fall is that the euro has become more rewarding for foreign investors, and they are reacting accordingly. In 2001, Middle Eastern oil-producing countries kept 75 percent of their currency reserves in dollars; now the figure is 61 percent, with much of the rest in euros. Chinese and Russian central bankers are also shifting reserves. This trend, at some point, could set off a spiral: the dollar declines, causing further sell-offs, leading to a further decline, and so on.
When the dollar has fallen in the past, the United States was a net creditor and there was no serious rival currency. Neither condition holds true now. As The Economist recently put it, "Never before has the guardian of the world's main reserve currency been its biggest net debtor."
Financiers and diplomats are beginning to ask: How much longer will the dollar remain the world's principal reserve currency? One could also ask, how much longer can the United States remain, as Madeleine Albright put it, "the indispensable country" of world politics?
This year, the United States spent nearly as much on its military as all other countries combined. No other nation possesses, or aspires to, anything like the reach of American armed forces.
Yet, if someday the United States finds that it can no longer count on foreigners to bankroll its deficits, it may also find that it can no longer afford a globe-spanning military. The war in Iraq has already stretched America's forces to the limit. In the 1970's and 1980's, when Pentagon strategists spoke of a two-front war, they envisioned having to fight simultaneously in, say, Germany and Korea. Today, they mean Mosul and Falluja.
About 40 percent of the American troops in Iraq are from the National Guard and Reserves, "weekend warriors" who never figured on serving long combat tours. As a result, Guard recruitment has fallen by 30 percent. If there is no large Guard and Reserve, there is no large Army. In short, not only has the Iraq war been harder than many imagined, it has also made going to war elsewhere a less practical option - and a less credible threat.
The economic trends are worrisome because they stem not just from market forces but also from politics. As T. R. Reid notes in his new book "The United States of Europe," the euro "was specifically designed to challenge the global hegemony of the dollar." Similarly, China's rivalry with the United States in Asia and Latin America isn't a side effect of economics; it's an explicit ambition.
These challenges will take decades to unfold, and may not succeed. China may recoil from its manufacturing boom and its excesses; Europeans could revert to age-old continental tensions. The United States may revive itself through changes in policy.
Meanwhile, power is not transferring so much as dispersing. It may turn out, if trends continue, that no country or bloc of countries possesses the combination of economic and military power needed to reward the good, deter or punish the bad and impose international rules, order and security.
A multipolar world can be a chaotic place. The danger is not so much that the United States may lose power, but that the globe's new rivals may fail to strike and manage a balance of power. End-of-the-year Cassandras traditionally predict doom, gloom and anarchy. This year they're looking less preposterous.
Fred Kaplan is the national security columnist for Slate.
Tuesday, December 28, 2004
See No Evil...
House Ethics Panel Chief May Be ReplacedBy Mike Allen
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, December 29, 2004; Page A04
House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert is leaning toward removing the House ethics committee chairman, who admonished House Majority Leader Tom DeLay this fall and has said he will treat DeLay like any other member, several Republican aides said yesterday.
Although Hastert (Ill.) has not made a decision, the expectation among leadership aides is that the chairman, Rep. Joel Hefley (R-Colo.), long at odds with party leaders because of his independence, will be replaced when Congress convenes next week.
The aides said a likely replacement is Rep. Lamar S. Smith, one of DeLay's fellow Texans, who held the job from 1999 to 2001. Smith wrote a check this year to DeLay's defense fund. An aide said Smith was favored for his knowledge of committee procedure.
Republicans are bracing for the possibility that DeLay, who is the chamber's second-ranking Republican and holds enormous sway over lawmakers, could be indicted by a Texas grand jury conducting a campaign finance investigation that the party contends is politically motivated.
The effort by DeLay and his allies to preserve his leadership post, even if he faces criminal charges, is one of the most sensitive issues facing Republicans as the new Congress begins. If Hefley is replaced by Smith, it is another signal by House leaders that they will stand by DeLay. "It certainly seems they're circling the wagons," said a GOP staff member who declined to be identified.
Monday, December 27, 2004
Toothless Tigers & Tort Reform
Robert B. ReichWeb Exclusive: 12.22.04
The White House says the Food and Drug administration is doing a
"spectacular" job. Really? The FDA didn't respond to warning signs that
block-buster painkillers like Celebrex and Vioxx increased the risk of
heart attacks. Worse yet, its own drug-safety officer says the agency
suppressed his research showing the apparent dangers of Vioxx.
Belatedly, the FDA is now looking into the potential risks of Naproxin,
an ingredient in many over-the-counter pain relievers. The FDA also
failed to warn the public that antidepressants increase the risk of
suicide among children who take them.
"Spectacular?" I don't think so. In fact, one might conclude that the
Food and Drug Administration is failing in its core mission to protect
consumers from harm. It's a toothless tiger.
Meanwhile, new legislation is winding its way through Congress that
would prevent people who are hurt by drugs approved by the FDA from
winning large damage awards against companies that made them. FDA
approval would shield drug makers from having to pay anything more than
$250,000 even when it's proven that they negligently caused someone more
than $250,000 of harm. Congressional sponsors understand this cap on
damages will end lawsuits against drug companies because personal-injury
lawyers won't want to take on the risks and costs of such cases. If this
bill passes, companies like Pfizer and Merck, now facing a flood of
lawsuits because of Celebrex and Vioxx, won't have to worry.
So we've got an FDA that's not protecting consumers from harm, and
pending legislation that makes it almost impossible for people who are
hurt by drugs approved by the FDA to sue for damages. The question must
be asked: How is the public going to be protected if the FDA remains
weak and if private lawsuits are cut off?
You might ask the same question all over government these days. Pick an
agency - not just the FDA, but the Securities and Exchange Commission,
the Consumer Product Safety Commission, the Federal Trade Commission,
and so on. They're supposed to protect the public. But they're all
understaffed, their budgets have been whacked, and many of them are in
the pockets of the very companies and industries they're supposed to
regulate.
At exactly the same time, Republicans are clamoring for what they call
"tort reform." Tort reform is a nice way of saying that people who are
harmed by companies shouldn't be able to sue them and collect damages.
They can't have it both ways. Either regulatory agencies have to be made
tougher and more independent, and given the resources they need to
protect the public, OR we've got to rely on courts and private lawsuits
to make sure companies have every financial incentive to protect the
public. Absent both - tough regulators and the threat of private
lawsuits - the public is at serious risk. If you're worried about
Celebrex and Vioxx, you ain't seen nothin' yet.

