Update on Kerry's "Shrinking Middle Class" -- Still Shrinking in 2003 We said his claim was based on stale numbers. Now some fresh statistics support what he said.

September 1, 2004
FactCheck.org
Modified: September 1, 2004

In our Aug. 3 article , "Kerry's Dubious Economics," we said Kerry based his claim that "our great middle class is shrinking" on some pretty stale numbers. We said his statement "may well be untrue" because it was based on 2002 figures and didn't account for recent economic growth. Now fresh numbers are available -- and Kerry's statement is looking more accurate.

Kerry's other economic statements remain at least as dubious as we reported. Recent figures show inflation-adjusted hourly earnings actually went up in July just as Kerry was announcing that "wages are falling," for example.

However, Kerry's description of a declining middle class is supported by new Census Bureau figures showing median household income failed to grow in 2003. And a look at income-distribution tables shows the decline that took place in middle-income households in 2001 and 2002, which we previously reported, may well have continued in 2003.
Analysis

On Aug. 26 the Census Bureau released its annual survey of income in the US. These more up-to-date figures show that Kerry may well have been correct when he said the middle class is shrinking, using present tense.

There's no standard definition of "middle class," so we looked at households with pre-tax income of between $25,000 and $75,000 -- a group occupying roughly the middle half of the Census income distribution tables. As we noted before, that group grew smaller during the economic recession of 2001 and the initially slow recovery of 2002. Now the new Census figures indicate it continued to decline in 2003, and while this time some of the middle group were moving up , a larger portion were moving down